Why Google could care less about the Verizon iPhone

Just two days after Verizon’s official announcement releasing information about the oft speculated CDMA iPhone, the media sector has become inundated with speculative posts and forecasts, previews and impressions, opinions and “fanboy-ism”.  Various media outlets are forecasting the “inevitable” death of Google’s Android OS now that AT&T no longer holds the reins of exclusivity to Apple’s powerhouse smart phone, the iPhone.  Personally, the proposed demise of Android amidst a multi-carrier iPhone market sounds about as probable as Palm becoming the leader of the mobile ecosystem; not fucking likely.  Don’t get me wrong, Verizon and Apple will see a serious boon in sales at the initial launch of the CDMA iPhone 4 with both parties profiting heavily, but Google’s Android has matured leaps and bounds in just the past year alone, securing it’s position as Apple’s iOS peer (in market penetration, if nothing else).

The real kicker here is that the figures being quoted regarding the launch of the initial iPhone are as flawed in the current environment as research data can be; Google’s Android was just another OS three years ago, that small fry two years ago, and this year saw Android morph into a giant market share slaying freakin’ robot.  The truth is NO ONE knows how the public will respond in the long-term to the iPhone this time around because NO ONE has come close to competing with Apple, until recently.

If the recently demoed Android 3.0 Honeycomb is anything to judge the direction Google is taking Android, one is left to assume that the next iterations will be just as high-quality, just as robust.  Initial complaints about Android was the lack of graphical frills in the user interface, Google had intended to allow handset manufacturers to produce their own quality interfaces with the hopes of varying the Android appearance.  Manufacturers jumped at the ability to customize the look and feel of their devices, but, unfortunately, they fell short.  Very short.  Fragmentation and a lack of user interaction follow through from device to device was (until recently) the major complaint against the mobile device.  With Android 2.3, Google began to improve their UI in-house, with their first major UI update finding itself home on tablets nationwide (well, soon), much to the chagrin of iPad owners.  Technical specifications and user interaction on the Motorola Xoom greatly surpass that of the existing offering from Cupertino, and the release schedules show no hit of slowing down.

Why fragmentation will eventually lead to Google’s dominance:

Speaking of fragmentation, to this day I am confused as to how mobile consumers can find fault in a smattering of different devices to choose from – logic would dictate a smorgasbord of handset offerings, all at varying price points (read performance) would please the ever fickle consumer.  In truth, it still might.  It did for Microsoft.

Microsoft and Apple have a notorious history together, full of intentional slights, name calling, and outright slanderous statements.  Apple, poised to take over the personal computer market with it’s widely appreciated (and incredibly over priced) Mac computers, refused to allow themselves to fragment and lose control of their IPO.  While this may seem like a logical decision, Microsoft surged ahead of Apple riding on the backs of millions of personal computers from any and every manufacturer that could afford to license the DOS based OS.  At the current rate of expansion, Google’s Android OS is sure to follow in it’s competitor/doppelganger’s foot-steps.

Google’s happy either way – when Apple makes money, Google makes money.

Just my two cents.